Walsall vs Accrington
League Two, England · 2026-08-29 · 18:00 CET
LWDWD
LDLLDThe score model made a Walsall win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Walsall 1.54 – 0.99 Accrington.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walsall win | 50.4% | 50.9% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.6% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Accrington win | 24.4% | 22.5% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 47.3% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 26.4% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 32.2% | -4.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Walsall 56.3 / Accrington 53.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.