Shrewsbury vs Salford
League Two, England · 2026-08-29 · 18:00 CET
LLLWL
LLLLWThe score model made a Salford win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Shrewsbury 0.98 – 1.43 Salford.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury win | 26.1% | 27.2% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.8% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Salford win | 47.6% | 46.1% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 47.0% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 26.1% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 32.6% | -3.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Shrewsbury 31 / Salford 57.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.