Port Vale vs Crewe
League Two, England · 2026-08-29 · 13:30 CET
LLDDL
DWWDDThe score model made a Port Vale win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Port Vale 1.31 – 0.98 Crewe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale win | 44.5% | 42.1% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.6% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Crewe win | 28.0% | 30.4% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.3% | 49.9% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 29.4% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 54.8% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.6% | 34.2% | -5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Port Vale 16.6 / Crewe 56.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.