Newport vs Tranmere
League Two, England · 2026-08-29 · 18:00 CET
WWLDL
DWDDDThe score model made a Newport win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Newport 1.51 – 1.34 Tranmere.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport win | 41.6% | 36.3% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 29.6% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Tranmere win | 33.9% | 34.1% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | 44.7% | +9.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% | 25.0% | +7.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 51.2% | +6.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 31.0% | +1.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Newport 56.2 / Tranmere 56.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.