Grimsby vs Fleetwood
League Two, England · 2026-08-29 · 18:00 CET
LWDDD
DWDDDThe score model made a Grimsby win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Grimsby 1.45 – 1.05 Fleetwood.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby win | 46.3% | 50.5% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 26.6% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Fleetwood win | 27.8% | 22.9% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 50.9% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 30.3% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 49.6% | 53.6% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 34.8% | -2.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Grimsby 57.2 / Fleetwood 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.