Crawley vs Bristol Rovers
League Two, England · 2026-08-29 · 18:00 CET
DLWLD
DLWWWThe score model made a Bristol Rovers win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Crawley 1.32 – 1.40 Bristol Rovers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley win | 35.4% | 30.6% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 26.9% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Bristol Rovers win | 39.3% | 42.4% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 54.8% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 33.9% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 58.9% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.7% | 37.1% | -13.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Crawley 41.5 / Bristol Rovers 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.