Stockport County vs Wycombe
League One, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
LWLWL
WDDLLThe score model made a Stockport County win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 5:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stockport County 1.54 – 1.16 Wycombe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport County win | 46.4% | 50.8% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.7% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Wycombe win | 28.8% | 23.5% | +5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 54.5% | -3.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 33.7% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 56.4% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 37.1% | -0.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stockport County 48.3 / Wycombe 56.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.