Stevenage vs Doncaster
League One, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
LDLDD
WLDDDThe score model made a Stevenage win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stevenage 1.20 – 0.80 Doncaster.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage win | 45.7% | 40.7% | +5.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.4% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Doncaster win | 24.7% | 29.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.3% | 44.3% | -12.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.2% | 24.4% | -10.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 38.2% | 50.5% | -12.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 51.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 16.2% | 30.3% | -14.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stevenage 55 / Doncaster 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.