Plymouth vs Bradford City
League One, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
WLDWL
LWWLLThe score model made a Plymouth win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Plymouth 1.44 – 1.10 Bradford City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 45.1% | 42.9% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.2% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Bradford City win | 29.0% | 29.9% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 53.1% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.1% | 32.6% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 57.3% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 36.0% | -3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Plymouth 34.3 / Bradford City 32.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.