Southampton vs Millwall
Championship, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
DLWWD
LWWLLThe score model made a Southampton win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 5:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Southampton 1.59 – 1.08 Millwall.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 48.5% | 48.4% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 25.8% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Millwall win | 25.1% | 25.8% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 55.7% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 34.6% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 58.2% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.9% | 37.2% | -9.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Southampton 39.2 / Millwall 57.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.