Middlesbrough vs West Brom
Championship, England · 2026-08-29 · 13:30 CET
LWLWD
LWWLDThe score model made a Middlesbrough win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Middlesbrough 1.46 – 0.98 West Brom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 47.3% | 53.9% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.9% | 25.1% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| West Brom win | 24.8% | 21.0% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.1% | 52.1% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.0% | 31.4% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 53.4% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.7% | 35.3% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Middlesbrough 57.8 / West Brom 56.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.