Bristol City vs Portsmouth
Championship, England · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
WLDWW
DLWLLThe score model made a Bristol City win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bristol City 1.53 – 1.05 Portsmouth.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 47.6% | 43.8% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 27.5% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Portsmouth win | 25.3% | 28.7% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | 46.8% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.8% | 26.1% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 31.9% | +3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bristol City 56.2 / Portsmouth 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.