Wrexham vs Birmingham
Championship, England · 2026-08-28 · 21:00 CET
DDDLW
DDDWDThe score model made a Wrexham win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wrexham 1.55 – 1.16 Birmingham.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrexham win | 45.6% | 41.7% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 29.3% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Birmingham win | 27.8% | 29.1% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 44.6% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 24.9% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 50.7% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.4% | 30.6% | +12.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wrexham 31.2 / Birmingham 41.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.