Zamalek vs Petrojet
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-08-31 · 19:00 CET
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WLDLLThe score model made a Zamalek win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zamalek 1.83 – 0.83 Petrojet.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamalek win | 59.3% | 61.6% | -2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 23.3% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Petrojet win | 14.9% | 15.1% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 50.0% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 29.4% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 47.2% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 34.3% | -6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zamalek 33.7 / Petrojet 29.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.