ZED vs Al Ahly
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-08-28 · 19:00 CET
DDDLW
WWWWWThe score model made an Al Ahly win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: ZED 0.92 – 1.60 Al Ahly.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZED win | 19.7% | 12.0% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 23.6% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Al Ahly win | 51.6% | 64.4% | -12.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | 43.2% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% | 23.2% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 38.0% | +11.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 29.5% | +4.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: ZED 34.8 / Al Ahly 33.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.