Enppi vs Wadi Degla
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-08-28 · 16:00 CET
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DWDWDThe score model made a Wadi Degla win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Enppi 0.98 – 1.13 Wadi Degla.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enppi win | 29.1% | 32.8% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 34.0% | 33.7% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Wadi Degla win | 36.8% | 33.5% | +3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.0% | 35.3% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.2% | 18.2% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | 44.3% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 25.1% | +3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Enppi 32.5 / Wadi Degla 22.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.