Al Ittihad vs Ceramica Cleopatra
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-08-28 · 19:00 CET
WDDLW
DLLWWThe score model made a Ceramica Cleopatra win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ittihad 0.85 – 1.26 Ceramica Cleopatra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ittihad win | 22.9% | 26.9% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.1% | 33.9% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Ceramica Cleopatra win | 44.0% | 39.2% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.2% | 32.5% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.3% | 16.0% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.9% | 40.8% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.4% | 23.3% | +3.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Ittihad 38 / Ceramica Cleopatra 32.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.