Jablonec B vs Liberec B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-06 · 10:15 CET
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WLWLLThe score model made a Jablonec B win the most likely outcome at 45%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 74%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jablonec B 2.08 – 1.78 Liberec B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jablonec B win | 45.1% | 48.4% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 23.9% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Liberec B win | 33.3% | 27.7% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.0% | 67.2% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53.7% | 48.5% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 73.0% | 68.2% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 86.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 54.8% | 46.8% | +8.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jablonec B 43.1 / Liberec B 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.