Zapy vs Jablonec B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-30 · 17:00 CET
DWWWD
LWDWDThe score model made a Zapy win the most likely outcome at 73%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zapy 2.50 – 0.84 Jablonec B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zapy win | 73.4% | 64.8% | +8.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 16.3% | 19.5% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Jablonec B win | 10.3% | 15.6% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 64.0% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.8% | 44.7% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 57.1% | -4.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.6% | 45.0% | +5.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zapy 40.7 / Jablonec B 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.