Liberec B vs Teplice B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-08-29 · 10:15 CET
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LLWWWThe score model made a Liberec B win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 76%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liberec B 2.27 – 1.71 Teplice B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberec B win | 50.6% | 37.4% | +13.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.4% | 24.0% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Teplice B win | 29.0% | 38.6% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.0% | 65.4% | +10.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56.3% | 45.8% | +10.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 73.7% | 67.1% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 88.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 58.9% | 45.1% | +13.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liberec B 38.4 / Teplice B 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.