Ceara vs CRB
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-07-23 · 02:30 CET
LWLWL
WLWWLThe score model made a Ceara win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.55 – 0.94 CRB.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 51.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| CRB win | 23.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | — | — | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceara 14.5 / CRB 35.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.