Leuven vs St. Liege
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-29 · 20:45 CET
DLLLL
LDDWWThe score model made a St. Liege win the most likely outcome at 35%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leuven 1.04 – 1.09 St. Liege.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leuven win | 32.9% | 36.0% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.8% | 27.7% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| St. Liege win | 35.2% | 36.3% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.9% | 51.9% | -15.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.8% | 30.9% | -14.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.1% | 56.3% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 35.1% | -10.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leuven 43.3 / St. Liege 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.