Kortrijk vs Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-08-29 · 18:15 CET
WWLLL
WWWWWThe score model made a Charleroi win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kortrijk 0.90 – 1.46 Charleroi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kortrijk win | 22.1% | 25.1% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.6% | 26.6% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Charleroi win | 49.3% | 48.3% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 52.2% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.2% | 31.1% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.4% | 55.1% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.5% | 35.6% | -8.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kortrijk 17.5 / Charleroi 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.