Qarabag vs Araz
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-09-06 · 18:15 CET
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WDLLLThe score model made a Qarabag win the most likely outcome at 79%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Qarabag 2.64 – 0.70 Araz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag win | 79.1% | 78.6% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 13.1% | 14.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Araz win | 7.9% | 7.0% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.8% | 62.9% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.8% | 42.4% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 42.4% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 42.6% | -0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Qarabag 43.1 / Araz 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.