Zira vs Neftci Baku
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-08-30 · 18:15 CET
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WWWWLThe score model made a Zira win the most likely outcome at 38%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zira 1.24 – 1.18 Neftci Baku.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zira win | 38.0% | 34.9% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 29.9% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Neftci Baku win | 35.1% | 35.2% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 43.7% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.5% | 24.2% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.8% | 50.8% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 30.3% | -0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zira 43.4 / Neftci Baku 43.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.