Sumqayit vs Qarabag
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-08-31 · 18:15 CET
WLLLL
DWWWWThe score model made a Qarabag win the most likely outcome at 73%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sumqayit 0.86 – 2.50 Qarabag.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumqayit win | 11.2% | 12.5% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 15.4% | 19.5% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Qarabag win | 73.4% | 68.0% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | 59.7% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.3% | 39.4% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 50.1% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 40.9% | -4.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sumqayit 42.3 / Qarabag 42.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.