Kapaz vs Turan Tovuz
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-08-30 · 16:00 CET
WLLLW
LLWDLThe score model made a Turan Tovuz win the most likely outcome at 57%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kapaz 0.73 – 1.53 Turan Tovuz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapaz win | 18.1% | 18.6% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.2% | 26.9% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Turan Tovuz win | 56.6% | 54.5% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.3% | 42.8% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.2% | 23.4% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.3% | 44.6% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.3% | 30.2% | -2.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kapaz 42.4 / Turan Tovuz 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.