Division 1 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Saudi Arabia · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 4 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Al-Ula (96%). 39 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ula | 5 | 15 | 4439–50 | 96% | 24 from 14 (1.71/game) |
Below 1%: Al Zulfi, Al Jabalain, Al Raed, Damac, Al Anwar, Al Taee, Al Orubah, Al Okhdood, Al Najma, Al Wehda, Al Saqer, Al Adalah, Jeddah, Hajer, Al Jandal, Al Bukiryah, Al Jeel.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 118 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).