Tweede Divisie title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Netherlands · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 6 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Quick Boys (83%), De Treffers (10%), Spakenburg (2%). 70 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quick Boys | 8 | 21 | 7365–81 | 83% | 49 from 26 (1.88/game) |
| De Treffers | 8 | 15 | 6253–70 | 10% | 55 from 26 (2.12/game) |
| Spakenburg | 8 | 13 | 5748–65 | 2% | 57 from 26 (2.19/game) |
| Hardenberg | 8 | 14 | 5446–63 | 1% | 56 from 26 (2.15/game) |
Below 1%: Rijnsburgse Boys, Hoek, Kozakken Boys, Katwijk, Jong Sparta Rotterdam, Jong Almere City, Barendrecht, AFC, IJsselmeervogels, GVVV, RKAV Volendam, HFC, Kloetinge, Raalte.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and the points it takes from its remaining games.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 234 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).