CFL - Group B title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Czech Republic · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 23 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Zapy (63%), Jablonec B (17%), Mlada Boleslav B (15%). 33 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zapy | 11 | 24 | 3329–36 | 63% | 9 from 4 (2.25/game) |
| Jablonec B | 11 | 24 | 3026–33 | 17% | 9 from 4 (2.25/game) |
| Mlada Boleslav B | 11 | 23 | 2926–33 | 15% | 10 from 4 (2.50/game) |
| Pardubice B | 11 | 18 | 2622–30 | 4% | 15 from 5 (3.00/game) |
| Benatky n. Jiz. | 11 | 20 | 2622–29 | 2% | 13 from 4 (3.25/game) |
Below 1%: Banik Most-Sous, Varnsdorf, Caslav, Neratovice, Chrudim, Teplice B, Liberec B, Hradec Kralove B, Horni Redice, Brozany, Velke Hamry.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 35 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).