Premier League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Azerbaijan · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 21 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Qarabag (56%), Sabah Baku (40%), Neftci Baku (4%). 76 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag | 7 | 17 | 7467–82 | 56% | 59 from 26 (2.27/game) |
| Sabah Baku | 7 | 19 | 7265–80 | 40% | 57 from 26 (2.19/game) |
| Neftci Baku | 8 | 17 | 6355–71 | 4% | 59 from 25 (2.36/game) |
Below 1%: Zira, Turan Tovuz, Shamakhi, Sumqayit, Kapaz, Imisli FK, Araz, Gabala, Safa Baku.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 152 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).