A-League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Australia · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 27 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Auckland FC (32%), Sydney FC (15%), Newcastle Jets (11%). 49 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland FC | 2 | 3 | 4436–52 | 32% | 46 from 24 (1.92/game) |
| Sydney FC | 2 | 4 | 4133–49 | 15% | 45 from 24 (1.88/game) |
| Newcastle Jets | 2 | 2 | 3931–47 | 11% | 47 from 24 (1.96/game) |
| Melbourne Victory | 2 | 1 | 3930–47 | 10% | 48 from 24 (2.00/game) |
| Melbourne City | 2 | 1 | 3830–47 | 9% | 48 from 24 (2.00/game) |
| Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 3829–46 | 8% | 49 from 25 (1.96/game) |
| WS Wanderers | 2 | 4 | 3729–45 | 7% | 45 from 24 (1.88/game) |
| Macarthur FC | 2 | 4 | 3527–43 | 4% | 45 from 24 (1.88/game) |
| Wellington Phoenix | 2 | 6 | 3527–43 | 3% | 43 from 24 (1.79/game) |
Below 1%: Central Coast Mariners, Brisbane Roar, Perth Glory.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 145 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).