Ligue 1 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Algeria · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: CR Belouizdad (56%), MC Alger (30%), Kabylie (5%). 60 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CR Belouizdad | 6 | 14 | 5951–66 | 56% | 46 from 25 (1.84/game) |
| MC Alger | 3 | 7 | 5547–63 | 30% | 53 from 27 (1.96/game) |
| Kabylie | 5 | 10 | 4840–56 | 5% | 50 from 25 (2.00/game) |
| Oran | 6 | 14 | 4739–54 | 3% | 46 from 24 (1.92/game) |
| USM Alger | 5 | 10 | 4537–53 | 2% | 50 from 25 (2.00/game) |
| Rouisset | 6 | 12 | 4437–52 | 1% | 48 from 24 (2.00/game) |
| Olympique Akbou | 6 | 10 | 4437–51 | 1% | 50 from 24 (2.08/game) |
Below 1%: El Biar, Ben Aknoun, ES Setif, Constantine, Saoura, Khenchela, ASO Chlef, Temouchent, Biskra.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 196 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).