Kristianstad W vs Rosengard W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-22 · 15:00 CET
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LWDLLThe score model makes a Kristianstad W win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 45.8% vs 39.0% implied (+6.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kristianstad W 1.71 – 1.49 Rosengard W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristianstad W win | 43.7% | 40.5% | +3.2% |
| Draw | 21.8% | 27.2% | -5.4% |
| Rosengard W win | 34.5% | 32.3% | +2.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | 55.6% | +6.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.7% | 35.0% | +4.7% |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | 60.0% | +2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.8% | 39.0% | +6.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kristianstad W 34.4 / Rosengard W 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.