Kristianstad W vs Rosengard W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-22 · 15:00 CET
LWDLW
LWWLWThe score model made a Kristianstad W win the most likely outcome at 44%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kristianstad W 1.71 – 1.49 Rosengard W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristianstad W win | 43.6% | 46.5% | -2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.9% | 26.2% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| Rosengard W win | 34.4% | 27.3% | +7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | 55.9% | +6.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.7% | 35.5% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | 58.7% | +4.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.7% | 38.5% | +7.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kristianstad W 34.2 / Rosengard W 34.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.