Burgos CF vs Real Sociedad B
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-31 · 19:00 CET
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LDLWDThe score model made a Burgos CF win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Burgos CF 1.33 – 0.83 Real Sociedad B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burgos CF win | 48.3% | 51.5% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.9% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Real Sociedad B win | 23.2% | 20.5% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.6% | 44.0% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.3% | 24.1% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 41.6% | 47.4% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 30.2% | +0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Burgos CF 54 / Real Sociedad B 30.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.