Cordoba vs Granada CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-30 · 21:30 CET
LDLWL
LLDWWThe score model made a Cordoba win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cordoba 1.51 – 1.35 Granada CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordoba win | 41.0% | 51.2% | -10.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.2% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Granada CF win | 33.9% | 21.6% | +12.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 52.8% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | 32.6% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 55.5% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.4% | 35.5% | +5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cordoba 44.3 / Granada CF 47.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.