Andorra vs Eibar
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-30 · 17:00 CET
LLWLL
WLLWWThe score model made an Andorra win the most likely outcome at 41%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Andorra 1.28 – 1.09 Eibar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra win | 40.7% | 44.6% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 28.4% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Eibar win | 31.2% | 27.0% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.1% | 48.8% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.4% | 28.3% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 53.6% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 33.3% | -9.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Andorra 40.7 / Eibar 54.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.