Leganes vs Eldense
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-29 · 21:00 CET
LWDWW
DLLDLThe score model made a Leganes win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leganes 1.46 – 0.84 Eldense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 51.4% | 49.5% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 27.4% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Eldense win | 21.4% | 23.2% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.4% | 45.9% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.0% | 25.6% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 50.0% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.3% | 31.4% | -9.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leganes 40.6 / Eldense 22.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.