Albacete vs Oviedo
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-29 · 21:00 CET
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WWDLWThe score model made an Albacete win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Albacete 1.16 – 1.08 Oviedo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albacete win | 37.2% | 38.6% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 30.3% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Oviedo win | 33.5% | 31.0% | +2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.7% | 39.2% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.8% | 20.4% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | 46.8% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 27.4% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Albacete 54.2 / Oviedo 25.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.