Tenerife vs Gijon
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-28 · 21:00 CET
LLWWL
WWDWWThe score model made a Tenerife win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tenerife 1.08 – 1.02 Gijon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 36.4% | 41.5% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.6% | 29.7% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Gijon win | 33.0% | 28.8% | +4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.0% | 41.5% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.1% | 22.1% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.5% | 48.5% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 28.9% | -6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tenerife 25.6 / Gijon 54.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.