Osasuna vs Getafe
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-31 · 19:30 CET
LLDWW
LWLWLThe score model made an Osasuna win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 29%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Osasuna 1.11 – 0.75 Getafe.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna win | 44.1% | 43.5% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.2% | 32.8% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Getafe win | 24.7% | 23.7% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28.5% | 31.2% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.8% | 14.8% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.2% | 38.9% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 54.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 18.8% | 22.4% | -3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Osasuna 48 / Getafe 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.