Celta Vigo vs Ath Bilbao
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-30 · 21:30 CET
DWDLL
DLLLWThe score model made a Celta Vigo win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.50 – 1.07 Ath Bilbao.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo win | 47.1% | 35.4% | +11.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 30.0% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Ath Bilbao win | 27.3% | 34.6% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 44.2% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.8% | 24.6% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 51.3% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.6% | 30.0% | -3.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Celta Vigo 48.1 / Ath Bilbao 48 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.