Sevilla vs Atl. Madrid
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-29 · 21:30 CET
LLWWL
WLWDWThe score model made an Atl. Madrid win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sevilla 1.19 – 1.59 Atl. Madrid.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla win | 28.7% | 23.0% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 27.7% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Atl. Madrid win | 46.7% | 49.3% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 46.2% | +6.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 26.1% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 50.4% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 30.8% | +4.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sevilla 48.2 / Atl. Madrid 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.