Real Sociedad vs Espanyol
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-29 · 19:00 CET
LDLLW
WDWLLThe score model made a Real Sociedad win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.63 – 1.07 Espanyol.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad win | 50.7% | 52.8% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 25.7% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Espanyol win | 24.9% | 21.6% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 51.6% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.5% | 30.8% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 53.7% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 35.3% | -4.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Real Sociedad 48.2 / Espanyol 42.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.