Levante vs Betis
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-29 · 17:00 CET
WLLDW
LWWWLThe score model made a Betis win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 5:2 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Levante 1.28 – 1.43 Betis.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante win | 33.6% | 29.1% | +4.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 28.5% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Betis win | 41.0% | 42.4% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 50.1% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 29.8% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 55.4% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 33.7% | +1.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Levante 26.8 / Betis 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.