Alaves vs Villarreal
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-28 · 21:30 CET
WLWDW
LWDDLThe score model made a Villarreal win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alaves 1.35 – 1.60 Villarreal.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves win | 32.5% | 30.4% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.2% | 27.4% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Villarreal win | 43.3% | 42.2% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.6% | 52.6% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% | 32.0% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 57.0% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 35.3% | +2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alaves 45.3 / Villarreal 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.