Celta Vigo vs Osasuna
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-27 · 20:30 CET
DWDLL
LLDWWThe score model made a Celta Vigo win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.57 – 0.99 Osasuna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo win | 50.9% | 48.0% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 28.7% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Osasuna win | 23.9% | 23.3% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | 41.1% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 22.0% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 46.7% | +3.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.3% | 28.4% | -2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Celta Vigo 47.4 / Osasuna 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.