Barcelona vs Ath Bilbao
La Liga, Spain · 2026-08-27 · 21:00 CET
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DLLLWThe score model made a Barcelona win the most likely outcome at 76%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Barcelona 2.63 – 0.81 Ath Bilbao.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 76.2% | 77.6% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.6% | 14.1% | +0.5% | ✗ |
| Ath Bilbao win | 9.2% | 8.3% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | 69.6% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.2% | 49.5% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 53.1% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 48.4% | -6.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Barcelona 47.4 / Ath Bilbao 47.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.