Juventus vs AC Milan
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-06 · 20:45 CET
LDWWD
WLWWDThe score model made a Juventus win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Juventus 1.35 – 1.05 AC Milan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus win | 43.7% | 44.3% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 29.5% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| AC Milan win | 29.0% | 26.2% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 44.8% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 24.8% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 50.7% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 29.8% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Juventus 47.3 / AC Milan 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.