AS Roma vs Atalanta
Serie A, Italy · 2026-09-05 · 20:45 CET
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WLDWWThe score model made an AS Roma win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 2:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: AS Roma 1.39 – 1.11 Atalanta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 43.3% | 57.1% | -13.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 24.1% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Atalanta win | 29.9% | 18.8% | +11.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 55.8% | -10.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.2% | 35.5% | -11.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 55.4% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.6% | 38.0% | -6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: AS Roma 47.5 / Atalanta 47.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.